Who to believe? US or China?
- Trump: China called US negotiators last night, says they want to come back to the negotiating table
- Trump: We have had two calls with China, they want to make a trade deal
- China foreign ministry says not aware of US-China weekend phone calls
It's been quite common in this entire ordeal that we have seen both sides send conflicting messages on how optimistic/pessimistic the trade situation is and today is but another fine example of such a situation.
I think it is firstly important to establish what perhaps transpired over the weekend given the remarks from both camps above.
For starters, I don't believe Trump will vehemently talk up contact between both countries if it never happened in the first place. Secondly, all China did is refusing to confirm that talks took place but they're not outright denying it either.
That is leading me to believe that talks probably did happen but they are almost certainly nowhere near as optimistic as Trump is painting out the picture to be. It is nigh impossible to think that China would call up US negotiators to "concede defeat" as Trump's remarks earlier would suggest.
I reckon it's more of the case that both sides are still prepping for a potential meeting in September but that's all there is to it. It's more of a meeting to feel out sentiment and take stock of the current situation rather than to seal any trade deal.
As such, I believe any optimism from the events today should be taken lightly. We've been down this road one too many times and the end-result has always been the same - one in which markets end up getting burned.
