Although adminstration talkers are touting an improvement or upturn in US economic data as “proof” of an economic turnaround, Macro Man posted this this morning which explains why some recent numbers, although still poor are being taken as “better”:
“Citigroup is one of a number of institutions that calculates an “economic surprise index”, which measures data outcomes relative to consensus expectations. The real economy aftershock of the Lehman collapse generated a steady skein of worse-than-expected data. More recently, however, analysts seem to have “caught up”, and so far this year the data has, in aggregate, come out in line with expectations.”
