What are your expectations for tomorrow's FOMC?
- Hike or no hike?
- Hawkish/dovish/same old, same old?
The probability of a hike tomorrow, as implied by the FFR futures is 2%. That's up from zero this time last month. It stood at 39.5% a day after the Dec hike and 48.0% a week later.
Adam has more on what's priced into tomorrow's FOMC
I'm surprised that expectations are so low and that presents a big risk to the market. I'm going to have a think about it but if the market is leaning so far towards unchanged a cheeky USD long may be the low risk trade.
Is old ma Yellen ready to fire again?
