The Fed ain’t going to launch quantitative ease today. That much seems certain. What they do expect is some hint that they are preparing to launch more asset buying later this year.

I’m of the opinion that the recently improved data buys the Fed some time (housing starts being the latest in a string) and we may not get as clear a signal as the market would like at today’s meeting.

If they Fed’s message is anything less than a clarion call for further QE in Nov/Dec, we may see a knee-jerk dollar rally for the next few days.