From the World Bank's quarterly Commodity Markets Outlook, published today

The full report is here

And Bloomberg have a summary piece here

Some of the high lowlights:

  • Iron ore prices are likely to post the biggest loss among metals this year (largest miners including Brazil's Vale SA and Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. in Australia increasing output to build market share.)
  • Low-cost supply continues to outstrip consumption
  • Iron ore demand is nearing its peak
  • Prices will average $42 a metric ton in 2016 (In October, the bank had forecast 2016 iron ore prices at $59.50.), a drop of 25 percent from $55.80 last year
  • Cut its 2017 estimate for iron ore by 28 percent to $44.10 a ton
  • Says prices will remain below $50 through 2019 before rising to $51 at the end of the decade
  • Nickel forecast to fall by 16 percent and copper by 9 percent

"Global seaborne iron ore demand may be nearing a peak due to China's transition to a less-metal intensive economy," the World Bank said. "New low-cost iron ore capacity continues to come online in Australia and Brazil, and is forcing closures of higher-cost mines in China and elsewhere."

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Not doing the AUD any favours this afternoon. China stocks down, oil price down too-

Comments from the report on oil:

  • Oil prices, which registered the largest decline, continued to slide in 2016 to below $30/bbl in mid-January, somewhat below levels that would appear to be warranted by fundamentals, on prospects for continued abundant supplies and concerns about weak demand
  • In addition to high stocks, OPEC reaffirmed its market share strategy at its December 2015 meeting, and exports from the Islamic Republic of Iran are expected to rise sharply as sanctions that had hampered oil sector investment and exports have been lifted.
  • U.S. crude oil production continued to fall from its peak in April 2015, but the decline has been slower than expected owing to efficiency gains and cost reductions
  • On the demand side, the oil price drop of 2015 encouraged consumption growth, but this was tempered in the fourth quarter by mild temperatures in the northern hemisphere reducing heating oil demand.

(boldings mine)

The comments on influences on supply and demand are nothing we really don't already know.