Marginally better than median forecast of 4.0

On the flip side, euro zone October industrial output +0.7% m/m, +6.9% y/y, quite a bit weaker than median forecasts of +1.3%, +7.6% respectively.

September’s numbers revised marginally better, to -0.7%, +5.4% from original -0.9%, +5.2%.

ZEW comments:

  • Budget consolidiation across many countries in Europe and prospect of more contractionary monetary policy in China are risk factors for German exports
  • Economic expectations for Germany seem to stabilise in December
  • Economic stimulus expected from domestic demand, exports

ZEW economist:

  • Fiscal consolidation important for next year’s outlook, but difficult to assess impact
  • Fiscal tightening problem for some European countries, but not for Germany
  • German exports to US should improve next year