At the end of the day, you need to defer to the bond market.
US 10-year yields are at 1.925% and yesterday's auction showed very strong demand. The Fed still has its thumb on the scale but that's not a market that's pricing in runaway inflation.
There's a collective hysteria ongoing about inflation but there are still abundant reasons to believe it will soon ebb. Supply chains won't be locked up forever (though omicron in China could make things worse). I expect things like the green transition to keep the prices of raw materials and energy high, though that will play out over years.
I'm sympathetic to the idea of a substantial cooling of inflation in the second half of the year.
For now though, that's clearly not the trade. The market will go wherever the CPI data takes us. here's the consensus.
