You have to wonder how markets would have reacted as the drama was unfolding in Russia. There were times when it looked like anything was possible, including Prigozhin seizing nuclear bases.
As it stands now, there appears to be some kind of ceasefire without a full conclusion. A coordinated release today in Russian media saying that criminal proceedings against Prigozhin were still ongoing suggests we haven't seen the final chapter yet. At the same time, I full-on civil war looks far less likely with Putin appearing to be in full control.
Oil would have been the focus and is up 40-cents to start the week. Note that the crude market had sniffed out some of this late on Friday as it erased a $2 decline to finish the day flat.
What surprises me is that bitcoin was so stable. A civil war or instability would have led to some major rubles-to-bitcoin conversion. I know that's a difficult trade to make with the current laws but in a panic, money finds a way. It suggests there was some indecision from market participants.
My guess is that we would have seen major risk aversion as it unfolded but now we may never know.
