This via the folks at eFX.

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  • Bank of America Global Research expects a major correction in USD/JPY in Q4 through Q3 of 2023. BofA targets USDJPY at 127 by year-end and 120 by Q3 of 2023.
  • "With lower oil prices and stalling outward M&A by Japan Inc., corporate JPY supply has likely peaked for now. However, investors' USD demand, another pillar of USD/JPY strength this year, could continue as the Fed's rate hikes boost the USD/JPY carry and hedge cost. In the last tightening cycle, USD/JPY declined and JPY strengthened after the Fed stopped hiking rates at end-2018 with developed market (DM) central banks unable to hike as much," BofA notes.
  • "We expect USD/JPY to remain elevated until US inflation starts to decelerate. We expect USD/JPY to remain above 135 through the summer and correct into 2023 from 4Q22. However, the structural JPY weakness should reemerge longer-term. We expect USD/JPY to end 2022 at 127," BofA adds.
usdyen weekly 02 September 2022