Boris Johnson

The horse-trading is well underway as Boris Johnson attempts to remain Prime Minister.

It will take the votes of 180 Conservative MPs to oust the PM in today's vote, which will start at 6 pm London time but won't be announced until 3 hours later (although knowing UK politics, it will leak).

The betting is that he will survive and there are several reports saying he has the votes. If he survives, he will be safe for a year.

What's interesting is that he might have had to make promises to get the votes. One might have been to cut taxes. According to souces cited by Reuters, he promised to cut taxes if he remains in office. The same report said he and Sunak would outline a program for boosting economic growth next week.

Cutting taxes into an inflationary environment adds some fuel to the fire but the report is scant on details.

GBP is the top performing G10 currency today and is generally unmoved in the latest round of USD buying. Gilt yields are up 9.3 bps to 2.247%.