- Prior month 2.8%
- CPI MoM 0.6% vs 0.3% estimate
- Prior MoM 0.1%
- CPI YoY 3.3% vs 3.0% expected
- gasoline prices fell -12.9% year on year versus -21.6 last month.
Core measures
- BOC Core YoY 3.2% versus 3.2% last month
- BOC Core MoM 0.5% vs. -0.1% last month
- Median 3.7% versus 3.9% last month
- Trim 3.6% vs 3.7% last month
- Common 4.8% vs 5.1% last month
Highlights of the report:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July
- Rose 3.3% year over year, up from 2.8% in June.
- Increase mainly due to base-year effect in gasoline prices.
- Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.1% (from 4.0% in June).
Electricity Prices in Alberta
- Increased by 127.8% year over year in July.
- Excluding energy, CPI slowed to 4.2% from 4.4% in June.
Mortgage Interest Cost Index
- Increased by 30.6% year over year.
- Largest contributor to headline inflation.
- All-items excluding mortgage interest cost index rose 2.4% in July.
Monthly CPI Movement
- Increased by 0.6% in July, up from 0.1% in June.
- Mainly due to higher prices for travel tours in peak travel month.
- Seasonally adjusted monthly CPI rose 0.5%.
Energy Products
- Year over year decline in energy prices was smaller in July (-8.2%) than in June (-14.6%).
- Gasoline prices fell 12.9% year over year in July.
- Electricity prices increased faster in July (+11.7%) than in June (+5.8%).
- Natural gas prices fell 15.7% year over year in July.
Travel-Related Services
- Prices slowed or declined compared to July 2022.
- Traveller accommodation prices increased 4.2% year over year.
- Prices for travel tours declined by 1.2%.
- Airfares decreased by 12.7% year over year.
Grocery Prices
- Grew at a slower pace, rising 8.5% in July (from 9.1% in June).
- Fresh fruit prices rose 4.1% in July.
- Bakery products increased by 9.8% year over year in July.
The data is worse than expected and the CAD is stronger with USDCAD falling back toward its 200-day moving average at 1.3447 and rising 100-hour moving average at 1.3440. The high price and today reached just before the data dump extended up toward the high price from last week at 1.35012 (the high price reached 1.34997). With the price decline, there is now a double top near the 1.35000 level.
