The increase reflects higher sales in the food, beverage and tobacco subsector, according to Statistics Canada.

  • Farm products: -9.5%
  • Food, beverage and tobacco products: +2.3%
  • Personal and household goods: -1.1%
  • Motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts and accessories: +0.2%
  • Building materials and supplies: +1.4%
  • Machinery, equipment and supplies: +1.7%
  • Miscellaneous goods: +0.4%

Canadian economic data has been deteriorating but this is a solid reading. The BOC was the first central bank to hike and I think could be the first to pivot. However seeing what's happening in GBP could give the BOC pause.

The market is pricing in a 94% chance of 50 bps in October with a 6% chance of 25 bps. That could be the end of the road for a bit.