In a fresh analysis of market trends, Credit Agricole has made an upward revision to its gold price forecast for 2024. They now expect gold to peak at $2050 by Q1 2024 and then ease back to $2000 by the end of Q2 2024. The bank continues to hold its previous target of $2000 for the precious metal by the end of 2023.
Several factors are believed to be driving the revised outlook. Firstly, the ongoing US debt-ceiling debacle has prompted investors to flock to gold, viewing it as a safe haven and a reserve asset in times of uncertainty. Gold has historically performed well during past debt ceiling incidents, often holding onto and even extending its gains in the months following a debt ceiling resolution.
Secondly, US political risks could continue to boost gold's appeal, even after the current debt ceiling issue is resolved. If the statutory debt limit is extended until January 2025, the ensuing political wrangling could amplify risks surrounding the 2024 US presidential election.
Lastly, Credit Agricole predicts a weakening USD in late 2023 and early 2024, due to expectations of the Federal Reserve entering an easing cycle amidst a potential US recession and subsiding inflation. This scenario is likely to further enhance gold's attractiveness.