Dallas Fed February manufacturing index -13.5 vs -8.4 prior

• Prior was -8.4

Details:

• Production index in January -2.8 versus 0.2 in January
• New orders index -13.2 vs -4.0 prior -- 9th month in a row negative
• Growth rate of orders -16.9 versus -12.3 last month
• Employment -1.0 versus 17.6 last month
• Hours worked +4.9 versus 3.8 last month
• Capital expenditures -1.3 versus +11.6 last month
• Wages and benefits +32.7 versus 30.5 last month
• Prices received +15.8 versus 9.9 last month
• Prices paid for raw materials +25.1 versus 20.5 last month
• Finished goods inventory -3.0 versus -8.9 last month
• Shipments -5.0 versus -6.3 last month

The question I'm thinking about: Is this still a regression to the pre-pandemic trend as the pandemic manufacturing boom fades? Or is deeper weakness creeping in? I'm starting to see signs that it is.

Comments in the report

• January and the start of February resulted in headwinds following a strong fourth quarter. Customers are decreasing inventories held and asking for better terms.
• After a slow start to the year, we saw a lot of new orders in late January and early February. Despite the talk of recession, we believe that we'll continue to grow.
• We are seeing all markets slow with the exception of automobiles. Personal electronics is in its third quarter of correction; all other markets (except automobiles) are in their second.
• The requirements for the Build America, Buy America Act are a hurdle because they have yet to be settled, and American manufacturing does not have the capacity to provide all the necessary materials for the construction projects. This is causing inflated prices and delayed project starts.
• All markets served have slowed down and are ordering lower quantities as compared with last year. Automotive OEM [original equipment manufacturers] customers’ volumes are most affected by lower quantities.
• We expect recession in the second half of this year. We already had a first round of layoffs. We are looking at each employee very carefully to learn who may have to be in a second wave of layoffs, if and when business slows down again.
• It seems like someone turned off the spigot, as we have gotten stupid slow, as have others in our industry. We are not sure if it’s the Federal Reserve jacking with interest rates, or else some sort of cyclical slowdown, but it feels like business has ground to a halt. We have some nice work planned for later on this year, but right now we are just stupid slow.
• February has been a slow month; it is hard to know why, but our outlook has worsened for both our business and retail activity in general.
• There is nothing positive with respect to the economy.

/US dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term