Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
  • Prior was -19.4
  • Output -0.8 vs +6.0 prior


  • Employment 5.9 vs 17.1 last month
  • Hours worked -1.0 from -0.1 last month
  • New orders -20.9 from -8.8 last month
  • Production 0.8 vs 6.0 last month
  • Raw material price paid 22.6 vs 32.0 last month
  • Prices received 13.9vs 22.2 last month month
  • Shipments -7.6 vs -1.6 last month
  • Growth rate of new orders -19.9 vs -13.2 last month
  • Finished goods inventories 2.2 vs -12.6 last month
  • Wages and benefits 36.5 vs 36.7 last month
  • Capital expenditures 9.3 vs 7.1 last month

Virtually everything here is pointing in the direction the Fed wants to see, with employment cooling and inflation pressures fading. This is an underrated survey.

Selected comments (all kinds of different views here but more negativity creeping in):

  • This is a manufacturing business making packaging. I believe we are a very good indicator of economic trends. Having said that, order volumes are down versus prior quarters. There is less panic buying going on. Inventories are beginning to go down. Lead times we are able to give to our customers are beginning to decrease as input of new orders slows. The slowdown is consistent with normal seasonal factors but way below last year’s very high fourth-quarter order level. We are beginning to see the end of the dislocations caused by the pandemic
  • Supply-chain problems have decreased.
  • Recession is coming! We are just waiting for the backlog to evaporate. Then layoffs start.
  • Supply-chain disruptions and delayed project schedules are negatively impacting our output and utilization. Inflation is decreasing demand
  • While we do see a softening in economic activity, we do not think it is a significant downturn at this time. Profitability will come under strain as steel prices decline, while labor and overhead costs remain elevated due to inflation.
  • We are still running strong; however, we believe that it is inevitable that the economy will contract within the next six months.
  • We are very concerned about the volume of future business activity. We see our customers pulling back their plans for expansion but still planning for the future
  • Opportunities have been a little slower over the past two months, but it’s nothing dramatic.
  • Inflation pressure continues to increase our cost of goods sold. Staffing is still tight in Dallas–Fort Worth, but we are seeing more stability. The cost of capital is unbearable for small businesses and will delay or reduce expenditures or hiring unless business drives change.
  • [The Federal Reserve] is going too crazy—that is really affecting the industrial equipment industry and stalling infrastructure spending as I have never seen before. Millions of jobs are at risk in manufacturing.
  • We are seeing weakness that began in personal electronics broaden into most markets except automotive.
  • The outlook is troubling and unsettling. Caution is the strategy. The Federal Reserve is too aggressive. Let what’s been done materialize in the economy before piling on.