The dollar held firmer in trading yesterday after we saw a surge in Treasury yields but is keeping mostly little changed so far on the day as markets settle down after the whole Pelosi visiting Taiwan drama. US-China tensions are still one to watch but the key risk event this week will be the US jobs report on Friday.
For now, the greenback is not doing a whole lot after having held up at some key technical levels during the week. Let's take a look.
EUR/USD is keeping up by 0.2% today to 1.0183 currently but with large expiries seen closer to 1.0200 alongside its key hourly moving averages at 1.0198-11, there is little to shout about today. The rejection at the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.0283 yesterday remains the significant technical action this week.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY is now trading flat around 133.20 after having traded down to a low of 132.30 earlier in the day, mirroring a recovery in Treasury yields. 10-year yields held lower to start the day around 2.71% but is now back up to 2.75%, being little changed. The surge higher in yields gave USD/JPY buyers something to work with near the 100-day moving average (red line) yesterday:
Meanwhile, USD/CAD is also trading back up above 1.2800 though it is down slightly today by 0.1% to 1.2860. The pair held a defence of its 100-day moving average (red line) earlier this week and is still caught in a bit of a push and pull for now:
Then, we have AUD/USD which is also trading marginally higher at 0.6930 but has retreated from the highs earlier in the week - which came close to testing the 61.8 Fib retracement level at 0.7053:
The less hawkish RBA is also something that is working against the aussie for now and the fact that price has fallen back below 0.7000 has invalidated the upside breakout earlier in the week.
In short, traders tried to push down the dollar for the next leg lower but have come up a bit short for now. It will take more conviction to solidify any further downside momentum in the greenback, so we're settling into a bit of a push and pull with the US non-farm payrolls on Friday set to be a key risk event for markets to work with.
