Everything is lining up delicately in the oil market in the week ahead.
EU member states met today to try to hammer out the Russian oil price cap level, which has been criticized as too low at $65 per barrel. Poland and the Baltic states want a lower number while Greece and Cyprus' powerful shipping lobby want it higher.
The G7 is waiting on that deal to put its own in place.
Bloomberg reported that today's meeting was a sign that a deal is at hand while the rebound in oil prices suggests the cap could go up. However there was no deal at the meeting, which just ended.
The Baltic states have leverage here because a 'no deal ' scenario means that the previously-agreed blanket ban goes into effect. Tehre has been no immediate reaction in oil with the market perhaps expecting a deal to eventually come together.
Next for oil is the Dec 4 OPEC+ meeting and the Dec 5 ban date.