OPEC's Joint Technical Committee (JTC) met on Wednesday ahead of the full OPEC+ meeting on September 5.

The JTC issued an estimate that the oil market surplus would amount to 0.9 million barrels per day for 2022 in a best-case scenario.

However, Reuters are conveying information, citing two unnamed OPEC+ sources:

  • After the meeting the figure was put at 0.4 million bpd, two OPEC+ sources said as the group decided to include in balances significant underproduction numbers by its own members.

Do read that comment with the understanding that OPEC folks would like the oil price higher rather than lower, hence smaller surplus is better. Anyway, enough of me and the tin hat.

On 'underproduction', this from earlier:

Oil update:

oil chart 01 September 2022