Late yesterday, FedEx offered a poor outlook for fiscal 2023 and that sent its stock 21.5% lower. The company is an economic belwether and it's significantly damped the mood.

“Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S. We are swiftly addressing these headwinds, but given the speed at which conditions shifted, first quarter results are below our expectations,” said Raj Subramaniam, FedEx Corporation president and chief executive officer in a release. “While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts and evaluating additional measures to enhance productivity, reduce variable costs, and implement structural cost-reduction initiatives. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident in achieving our fiscal year 2025 financial targets.”

The quesion is: Did online shopping in the pandemic skew the delivery business or is this truly a macro problem? Is this just a shift to services spending from goods, something markets were anticipating?

Also remember, FedEx offered a similar warning exactly three years ago and the economy was just fine.

Fedex warning

In any case, S&P 500 futures are down 1.3% just ahead of the open. It won't be a pretty one.