- US January housing starts 1.638m vs 1.70m expected
- February Philly Fed +16 vs +20 expected
- US initial jobless claims 248K vs 219K estimate
- ECB's Lane: Size and frequency of rate moves will depend on inflation
- ECB's Lane: Some factors argue that low-inflation dynamics pre-pandemic won't return
- More from ECB's Lane: Inflation is mostly imported inflation shock.
- Russia's Putin: US counterproposals on security were not constructive
- Fresh reports of shelling in Ukraine
- Blinken: Russian troops repared to launch an attack in the coming days
- Russia insists on withdrawal of all US forces from central and eastern Europe - RIA
- White House: We're in the window where a Russian attack can come at any time
- US envoy to UN: Evidence is the Russia moving toward 'imminent' invasion
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 growth 1.3% versus 1.5% last
- Fed's Bullard: We are missing are inflation target by more than 300 basis points
- Bullard: Markets may be losing faith that inflation will abate
- US mortgage rates continue climb higher
Markets
- Gold up $28 to 8-month high at $1897
- US 10-year yields down 7 bps to 1.97%
- WTI crude oil down $1.87 to $91.79
- S&P 500 down 93 points to 4381
- Nasdaq down 2.9%
- JPY leads, CAD lags
Someone wake up the FX market.
It was a rough day in the equity market and Treasury yields sank but the FX market generally watched from the sidelines. There was some yen buying but nothing on the scale of what you would expect with a 3% decline in the Nasdaq. GBP/JPY barely finished lower on the day and AUD/USD was flat.
Some of that reflects diminishing expectations of a 50 basis point cut from the FOMC in March (despite Bullard's best efforts) but there's also idiosyncratic selling in tech stocks.
Ukraine jitters intensified in Asia after shelling among separatists and Ukrainian government forces. However the big FX blips on that were quickly erased and FX did little from there. It wasn't until very late in the day that the commodity currencies sold off, despite softening commodity prices.
Gold continued to shin, hitting an 8-month high and rising above $1900 briefly. The evidence is growing that it's breaking out from a long-term consolidation pattern.
The market is clearly on edge here but this was an especially unusual day. We would normally see a better tone with yields falling but the selling in stocks was almost systematic. A fumbling appearance from ARKK CEO Cathie Wood didn't help. Her ETF fell nearly 7% on the day.
