Headlines:
- FX hits the reset button after early day jitters
- US futures erase the earlier drop from Israel-Iran fears
- Report says early assessment is that Iran will not be retaliating against Israel tonight
- Senior Iranian official reportedly says there is no plan for immediate retaliation
- Iran media denies reports of a foreign attack on Iranian cities, including Isfahan
- UK March retail sales 0.0% vs +0.3% m/m expected
- Germany March PPI +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected
- Germany reportedly to raise economic growth forecast for the year
Markets:
- CHF leads, NZD lags on the day
- European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%
- US 10-year yields down 4.7 bps to 4.60%
- Gold down 0.1% to $2,376.72
- WTI crude down 0.4% to $82.38
- Bitcoin up 2.2% to $64,910
It was all about fading the fear in European morning trade. Iran heavily downplayed the Israel attack and reaffirmed that they aren't seeking retaliation. And that is enough for markets to complete a turnaround in sentiment for the most part.
While there is of course risk heading into the weekend, it seems like traders are brushing that aside mostly. S&P 500 futures were down as much as 1.7% after the headlines in Asia but are now down just 0.1% on the day. Meanwhile, gold was up to a high of $2,417 early on but is now down to $2,376 at the lows for the day.
In FX, major currencies also did a round trip with USD/JPY recovering back to 154.60 and near unchanged now. The pair was down as much as 153.60 amid the jitters earlier today. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are also back to flat levels at 1.0650 and 1.2440 respectively.
Meanwhile, USD/CHF is down 0.4% to 0.9085 but is well off its earlier low of 0.9010. The commodity currencies are still lacking a little though, with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6408 and NZD/US down 0.3% to 0.5882 currently.
There won't be much on the calendar in US trading later to really shake things up. As such, it's all about whether traders have the appetite to buy risk back up ahead of the weekend. Is this the final straw in this whole Israel-Iran episode? If so, there's only one playbook to go with.
Have a great weekend, everyone.
