The SNB may have put an end to the negative interest rates era with a 75 bps rate hike - as anticipated by markets - but that wasn't enough to prevent a sharp drop in the franc. If you're wondering why, it is because punters were expecting a 100 bps move with odds of that being fully priced in going into the decision. As such, 75 bps (even if expected) was an underwhelming decision.
This should also serve as a potential lesson for the pound reaction later today as markets are expecting a 50 bps rate hike by the BOE, bringing the bank rate to 2.25%. That said, OIS markets are showing odds of 93% priced in for a 75 bps move. It pretty much underscores the risk for the pound if the BOE fails to deliver on that.
With cable already under pressure amid the post-Fed surge in the dollar, the pair has much room for a steeper decline if the BOE underwhelms with an "expected" decision later today. That said, even if they do hike by 75 bps, the dire outlook for the UK economy will make it unlikely to see any relief for the pound be lasting.
