• Composite PMI 49.1 vs 49.0 prelim

Little change to the initial estimates as the final report reaffirms a marginal decline in French services and overall business activity to start the new year. S&P Global notes that:

"While it's clear from the PMI surveys that France's economy has been contracting since last November, declines thus far have only been marginal. This is a much better outcome than many had anticipated prior to the winter, when concerns about the economic impact of the energy crisis were at their most elevated.

"Furthermore, shallow declines in business activity in each of the past three months also limit the likelihood of the country even dipping into recession. While this can't be ruled out just yet, other areas of the PMI survey show reasons to be cautiously optimistic. We saw the Composite Future Output Index hit a six-month high in January, while employment growth also improved.

"That said, of concern will be the still-elevated rate at which input costs are rising, with many firms commenting on growing wage pressures. We're seeing inflation stay much stickier in the service sector, with firms here not hesitating to raise their prices more aggressively. Whether this aggravates the current soft patch in demand remains to be seen, but it poses a significant challenge to monetary policymakers in assessing how far they need to go in the tightening cycle."