TTF

The latest move by Russia to restrict European natural gas prices is increasingly setting off alarm bells. There are reports of throttling already and plenty of worries about shortages for the winter.

The justification that Russia has given for curbing supplies -- ostensibly -- is that a Seimens turbine to run the Nord Stream pipeline is trapped in Canada because of Russian sanctions.

As you can see from the chart, gas prices haven't yet spiked to crisis levels. But we're a low-use period for gas and that will change completely in 5 months. Given that there's no sign of peace in Ukraine, it could be a tough winter in Europe.

Already, we're seeing signs of disunity on the response. European leaders are being pressured to drop sanctions targetting insurance on Russian energy and/or goods shipments.