Goldman Sachs says:

  • China may end its Covid Zero policy before April -- earlier than widely expected - forecasts a 30% probability of China reopening before the second quarter of 2023
  • some chance of a “disorderly” exit
  • “The central government may soon need to choose between more lockdowns and more Covid outbreaks,”
  • Local governments have struggled to “balance quickly” controlling the spread of the virus while obeying recent measures mandating a more targeted approach

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GS add that it still sees a Q2 exit from Covid Zero as having the highest chance of happening -- around 60%

china shanghai COVID protest 28 November 2022

Earlier:

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