A snippet from Goldman Sachs, analysts there are well below the consensus:
- We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in May ... a slowdown from the +428k pace in both of the previous two months and below the consensus of +323k
- We estimate a one-tenth drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5%, in line with the consensus
GS citing:
- Job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season when the labour market is tight—particularly in May before the arrival of the youth summer workforce—and all four Big Data employment indicators we track suggest a below-consensus report.
- Job postings data also indicate a sequential decline in labour demand, albeit to still very high levels.
- On the positive side, the May seasonal factors have evolved favourably in recent years and represent a tailwind of roughly 100k, in our view.
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The White House 'preview' would seem to be below consensus also:
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Consensus estimates are in the second column from the right:
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.
