This via the folks at eFX.
- "Since early April, the Australian dollar has weakened by -9% against the US dollar despite the support of positive terms of trade shocks. AUD's decline was driven primarily by deteriorating risk sentiment amid rising expectations of a faster pace of monetary tightening in the US, alongside rising global growth concerns," GS notes.
- "Over the medium term, there are some macroeconomic tailwinds for the Aussie that could help support the currency, including a very strong trade surplus driven by strong prices of key exports from grains to metals and coal/LNG. However, despite a fresh round of Chinese stimulus spending that could boost China's demand for Australian commodities, downside risks to China (and global) growth remain in focus and over more tactical horizons we remain cautious on AUD vs USD," GS adds.