The drop in annual inflation pressures in Europe last month owes much to base effects. So, don't expect the same kind of fall this time around as that was largely a one-off after the surge in energy prices from last year amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
As such, German annual headline inflation is estimated to show a 7.3% reading this month - reflecting just a mild drop from March.
While that might still point to signs of inflation peaking, core prices remain elevated and the monthly reading is expected to show a further increase of 0.6%. That won't provide the ECB with much comfort at least for the time being.
If anything else, the numbers today should just reaffirm the central bank's current stance but if they are higher than expected, that might invite pressure on bonds later in the day.
Here's the agenda for today:
- 0530 GMT - North Rhine Westphalia
- 0800 GMT - Brandenburg
- 0800 GMT - Hesse
- 0800 GMT - Bavaria
- 0800 GMT - Baden Wuerttemberg
- 0900 GMT - Saxony
- 1200 GMT - Germany national preliminary figures
Do note that the releases don't exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.
