CPI and PPI y/y data from China for the month of December are published today. These are likely to remain subdued. A report from China Beige Book International (CBBI) this week, based on a survey of 4,300+ businesses showed:
- Q4 2022 (October - December) had the weakest growth in wages and input costs since mid-2020
- sales price growth fell to its lowest since late 2020
- “Short-term disinflation is already here, with sales price growth slowing to a crawl”
- “The Covid-19 blow to retail could push this into deflation in the first quarter.”
Fiscal and monetary stimulus is increasing in China, this will likely push up inflation in the months ahead, but not yet. Current CPI levels do not stand in the way of even more support.
- This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.
- The times in the left-most column are GMT.
- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
- I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.
