Citigroup puts the probability of a recession at 50%.

In a client note, citing higher  Federal Reserve  interest rates & rocketing  inflation  leading to stress on consumer spending and economic output.

  • The global economy continues to be afflicted by severe supply shocks, which are pushing up inflation and driving down growth
  • more recently, two further factors have burst onto the scene: Central banks are hiking policy rates with increasing vigour in their fight against inflation, and the global consumer’s demand for goods looks to be softening
  • we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%. Central banks may yet engineer the soft—or 'softish'—landings embedded in their forecasts (and in ours), but this will require supply shocks to ebb and demand to remain resilient

More here.

Hard landing, incoming.

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