Powell Lagarde roller coaster

Welcome to Fed day.

It's a big one with Fed funds futures stuck on a 19% chance of a 100 bps hike and the remainder at 75 bps. There's been no informal leak and there's plenty of uncertainty about what will be in the statement and in the summary of economic projections.

I'll have plenty on the Fed throughout the day but it won't be the only focus of the day, the pound and euro continue to skid. I spoke with AFP about those declines yesterday and the growing uncertainty on UK finances.

The Fed won't have to dig much last-second data for its decision. The lone indicator today is at 10 am ET the August existing home sales report, which is forecast at 4.70m, down from 4.81m. It won't be a market mover.

The oil market is moving today with WTI up $2 on Russian uncertainty but could swing on weekly inventories at 10:30 am ET. Expectations:

  • Crude +2167K
  • Gasoline -430K
  • Distillates +420K

The API data from late yesterday showed:

  • Crude +1035K
  • Gasoline +3225K
  • Distillates +1538K