JP Morgan expects Brent crude oil prices to remain flat in 2024, averaging $83 a barrel

  • down in 2025, averaging $75 per barrel
  • for this year, 2023 sees average $81


  • in 2023 demand is on track to grow by 1.9 million barrels a day, with non-OPEC supply is expected to surpass this with a 2.2m b/d expansion, primarily driven by a 1.5m b/d increase in U.S. output
  • sees global sustained demand of 1.6 million barrels a day in 2024
    • supported by robust emerging-market economies, a resilient U.S., and a weak-but-stable Europe
  • supply growth in 2024 from non-OPEC producers is seen at 1.7m b/d, more than matching gains in demand
    • JPM says that to keep the oil market balanced, OPEC+ alliance would need to continue constraining production
  • Global oil demand growth could decelerate to 1 million barrels a day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ supply potentially surging and the global market likely shifting into a surplus
    • could lead to OPEC+ members deepening current cuts by a million barrels per day
  • expects Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production/export cuts through Q1 2024
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