Note from Tuesday US time from JP Morgan oil analysts outlining some scenarios amidst Russia - Ukraine - US - Europe tensions.
- Such is the fundamental market tightness in oil today that under a best-case scenario in which tensions between Russia and Ukraine de-escalate, the oil price would likely merely drop to $84 bbl.
- But any disruptions to oil flows from Russia in a context of low spare capacity in other regions could easily send oil prices to $120 bbl.
- A halving of Russian oil exports would likely push the Brent oil price to $150 bbl,
Currently, JPM Brent crude oil forecasts are
$84 /bbl for 1Q this year
$89 by 4Q 2022
For WTI the forecast is for
- $81 Q1
- $86 Q4
