The narrative has shifted for equity market losses, from at first being about rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions, to now being also about growth/earnings worries as inflation erodes spending power and profits.
This via Reuters with updated JPM forecasts showing slower growth expected ahead:
- H2 GDP 2.4% (from 3%)
- H1 2023 1.5% (from 2.1%)
- H2 2023 1% (from 1.4%)
JPM say there may be enough of a growth slowdown to lead to a gradual increase in the unemployment rate later in 2023, this will alleviate some of the wage pressures that have been building.
“In short, we forecast a soft landing, but are well aware that this outcome has rarely (if ever) occurred,”
SPX (weekly candles):
