The key theme in markets right now is a balancing act by central banks between inflation and the economy, as they also seek to bring an end to rate hikes. For the most part, markets are convinced that the tightening cycle is coming to a close and that we could even get rate cuts before year-end.
So, in order to validate or invalidate that assumption, it all comes down to big data. As such, we are in a situation where the narrative will slowly develop as we move through each and every key economic release or risk event. Here's the ones to watch out for this week:
- RBA May monetary policy meeting minutes (16/11) *
- China April retail sales, industrial production (16/11) **
- UK April labour market report (16/11) *
- Canada April CPI figures (16/11) **
- US April retail sales data (16/11) ***
- Australia April labour market report (18/11) **
- Fed chair Powell to speak on monetary policy (19/11) ***
Looking at the agenda, the two big ones to watch in terms of impacting macro sentiment will be the US retail sales tomorrow and Fed chair Powell's speech at the end of the week.
