Welcome to another edition of non-farm payrolls Friday with a side of Canadian bacon.
The consensus on US jobs is 391K from 431K with 3.5% unemployment but survey data have been soft:
- ADP 247k vs 283k expected
- ISM services employment 49.5 from 54.0 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 50.9 from 55.0 prior
The stock market would like a soft reading and that would also take some pressure off the dollar because it would mean fewer Fed hikes.
The headline and unemployment rate though could be overshadowed by wage data. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.4% m/m and 5.5% y/y. That's the place to watch.
It's a similar dynamic in Canada where expectations are for:
- 55.0K jobs
- 5.2% unemployment
- Avg hourly earnings (no consensus) 3.7% prior
