Morgan Stanley outlook for GBP:

  • "We turn bearish skew for GBP but see another sharp leg lower in GBP as unlikely. The BoE delivered a 50bp hike, in line with market expectations, but this decision was accompanied by a very bleak set of forecasts and an explicit warning of a protracted UK recession starting from 4Q22," MS notes.
  • "It is these weak growth expectations which we think will continue to keep GBP on the back foot against its G10 peers. However, given how low growth expectations already are and how bearish sentiment is on GBP, we think the risk of a further sharp leg lower in GBP has decreased," MS adds.


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gbp chart 12 August 2022