NEWSQUAWK'S NFP PREVIEW: The rate of payrolls growth is expected to cool again in June, but once again, traders will be paying close attention to the wage metrics within the data to help shape expectations about whether the Fed will raise rates by either a 50bps or a 75bps increment at the July FOMC meeting. The jobs report is one part of the equation in forming these expectations, the other being the June CPI Data due next week. The data releases could also be influential in determining the course for rate hikes through the rest of this year; a recent dovish repricing of the trajectory of Fed rate hikes (on the back of recession fears) has been unwinding, and money markets now assign an approximately 50% chance rates will rise to 3.25-3.50% by year-end.
Primary Dealer NFP Guesses via @ABartonMacro
AP +375K
TD +350K
BofA +325K
MS +325K
Jeff +320K
SocGen +310K
Daiwa +300K
NW +300K
Scotia +300K
Citi +290K
Nomura +290K
Barx +275K
CS +275K
JPM +275K
GS +250K
HSBC +250K
WF +240K
BNP +230K
DB +225K
UBS +225K
BMO +200K
Miz +200K
Median +282.5K
