WTI D1 13-05

If there's one thing that must be said about oil prices, is that it has been remarkably resilient over the past two months. And especially so in the past few weeks of trading.

Global growth worries. China lockdowns. Worsening risk appetite. Recession fears weighing on demand outlook. And yet, all of that isn't enough to sink oil below the $100 - at least not in a meaningful or significant manner.

Going by the chart, there were some testing times since the retreat from the early March highs, but it seems like there is a certain stubbornness as price continues to hold up.

I think one key argument that not many people are raising is that there continues to be a shortage in supply and the situation is likely to get worse amid the supposed transition to green energy. The fact there is underinvestment in the sector and falling inventories continue to allude to a tighter market in general.

Throw in the fact that Russia supplies are being phased out with little to no immediate substitutes, the tighter market outlook is going to stay for longer. The capacity shortage and the fact that OPEC+ is also not doing much more than they are now isn't going to help alleviate sentiment on that front either.

When you throw in those factors and see how resilient oil prices have been as of late. It's rather scary to imagine where prices might end up once we get over this hump.

For now, the chart above points to a potential wedge pattern that is forming. That could hint at the next big move in oil if it breaks out from its somewhat consolidation pattern as of late.