OPEC+ compliance with its quotas was about 122% in December, according to two sources cited by Reuters. That rose from 117% in November.

A higher number means less production and the report's sources highlight that some countries are struggling to lift output in order to hit quotas.

There is certainly some spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE but there are growing questions about the rest of the bloc, including Russia.

The sources said OPEC countries were at 127% compliance and non-OPEC members (the + countries) were at 114%.

There's a big risk that OPEC+ doesn't have the oil and that it will leave markets undersupplied this year but that risk has been flagged for many months. Still, no one is investing in new production.

Despite all that, I think this latest leg of the rally in oil is more about stockpiling against risks of a potential Russian invasion than OPEC. WTI was last down 51-cents to $85.02.