Estimates of world oil demand growth are all over the place for 2023 with ranges from 1 mbpd to 4 mbpd with two major uncertainties in: 1) China and 2) Aviation
How demand unfolds will be the overwhelming determinate of prices in 2023 because Russia continues to find a way to ship supply.
In terms of China, OPEC sees a 510,000 bpd increase, which sounds conservative given the breakneck speed with which they've opened up and got past the worst of covid.
However OPEC's world GDP growth estimate of +2.5% is on the rosy side and they noted that momentum late in the year was stronger than anticipated.
WTI crude oil is up $0.31 to $80.17 today with brent up $1.12 to $85.56.
