Market watchers are trying to find some solace in the slowdown of covid cases in South Africa but that might be the wrong take because the vast majority of cases may be missed.
In today's report, there were 23,992 new cases on 68,437 tests but the positivity rate was a whopping 34.9%. That's highly suggestive that it's virtually everywhere in some parts of the country.
I reported on some hard data earlier and it wasn't exactly promising. That's likely why the market is so sour today. At the same time, these numbers suggest that only a fraction of the total cases are being reported and treated. Despite that, hospitalizations and deaths haven't run up.
So maybe that is a sign that it's milder?
"We are seeing a large number of breakthrough infections... but those infections are not progressing to severe disease or death in any sort of meaningful large numbers," said Shabir Madhi, vaccinology professor at Johannesburg's University of the Witwatersrand.
"As an example yesterday [Sunday] there were about 20,000 cases reported and about 25 people who died of Covid-19," he told the BBC's Newsday programme.
"During the course of the Delta variant wave, when there were 20,000 cases in South Africa the number of those dying each day was between 200 and 300," Prof Madhi said.
Fingers crossed.
I don't think the Fed will be doing the markets any favours on Wednesday.
