The muted reaction after the interest rate decision, turned to sharp moves as the Powell press conference progressed.
Powell spoke to data dependency going forward.
Along those lines, he cited the June inflation number had risen too fast which forced the 75 basis point hike today. Whether that data point was an excuse to get the rate to the neutral level that the Fed has been craving, we will never know, but price pressures seemed to have eased since that data point. Fed Powell knows that. They want to snuff out inflation. Have a strong employment market to do it.
Having said that, if he is literally dependent on data, with oil prices down since June, commodity prices lower, Walmart reporting of higher inventories and the need to lower prices on some goods as consumers spending goes toward food and still higher gas, it, has traders thinking that "data dependent" will lead the Fed to a slower pace of hikes. In other words, the finish line is in sight.
So:
- Stocks are moving higher. The S&P index is up near 3% and the NASDAQ index is up 4.44%
- US yields are lower. 2 year yield is down 7.7 basis points. The 5 year is down 7 basis points and the 10 year is down to 3 basis points
- The USD has moved lower. The US dollar is trading at sharply lower levels which is good for large multi-nationals (just in time ahead of earnings from Apple, Meta and Amazon over the next two days
- Gold is up $22 in reaction to the lower dollar
Looking at the EURUSD, it has move back above its near converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 1.0184, and trades back above the 1.0200 level at 1.0218 currently.
The GBPUSD has moved above the 50% retracement of the move down from the June high 1.2082, above 1.2100, above the 61.8% retracement at 1.21587 (of the same move down from the June high). The high has reached 1.21853
The USDCHF is below its 100 day MA at 0.96099 and trading to the lowest level since July 4.