- 2-year Treasury yields +7.0 bps to 2.590%
- 5-year Treasury yields +7.7 bps to 2.834%
- 10-year Treasury yields +6.5 bps to 2.780%
- 30-year Treasury yields +2.2 bps to 2.768%
The rout in the bond market continues to gather pace, with Treasury yields surging to fresh highs for the year to start the new week. The sentiment playing out right now is that the Fed is going to keep with rate hikes and they are adamant that they can stick with a tighter policy path through to next year.
I remain skeptical on that but as ever with policymakers, their views will only change when the time has long called for it. Take the whole 'transitory' debate for example. And look where we are now.
That being said, there's another thing to be mindful about with the move in the bond market this time around. The technical aspect of things warrants more consideration as we could be seeing signs that this "bubble" is starting to pop perhaps. The long-term channel in 10-year yields is under threat and more so that yields are pushing past the 200-month moving average:
A shove above the 3% level could really trigger some systemic warnings across global markets.
