Gold daily

Gold broke the year-to-date high on Friday and has continued the momentum higher today, adding $7 to $1866.

It's been a one-way run for gold from the low of $1780 in late January. The next major hurdle is the November high of $1876 and we're now within striking distance of that. Also notable is that a close above $1866 would be the highest since June.

It's tough to separate the inflation story and the Russia-Ukraine story from the price action in gold . I can see a compelling argument for buying gold on central bank instability. The bond market is getting hammered daily and gold is a shelter from that.

On Ukraine, there's always a bid in gold on geopolitical fears but Russia has enormous gold reserves and if it's sanctioned, those could be sold down to prop up the ruble. So there are two-ways risks around a conflict.

That said, the market is only moving in one direction and this could be the breakout of the massive wedge on the chart that's been building for two years.