There's a bull market in obscure inflation measures

On Wednesday, the highlight of the week on the economic calendar is due with the release of the July CPI report.

Here's the consensus on the headline:

• +8.7% y/y
• +0.2% m/m

And core:

• +6.1% y/y
• +0.5% m/m

One of the measures that's increasingly popular is the Cleveland Fed's CPI nowcast. They're close to consensus with:

• +8.82% y/y
• +0.27% m/m

And core:

• +6.05% y/y
• +0.48% m/m

The other thing that people are watching are private sector reports. One is the Adobe Digital Price Index, which measures the prices of things online. It fell in July year-over-year data for the first time in two years.

Overall the market is certainly indicating that prices will fall but whether that settles at 2% or closer to 4% isn't going to be revealed in any data just yet.

But markets are prepared to move on whether the Fed goes 50 bps or 75 bps in September. Right now, the Fed funds futures Futures Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as Futures or a futures contract represents a legal agreement to buy or sell a security or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future. Of note, the parties are not known to each other.These transactions usually involve commodities or other securities involving the buying and selling for a forward or predetermined price.Futures also adhere to a delivery date, which specifies the date of delivery and payment. Relative to other forms of investing futures are much more complex, as Read this Term market is priced 67.5% in favor of 75 bps.