• nonfarm payrolls April 2022 chart
  • Prior was +431K (revised to +428K)
  • Estimates ranged from +188K to +571K
  • Two month net revision -10K
  • Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.5% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.6%
  • Participation rate 62.2% vs 62.4% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
  • U6 underemployment rate 7.0% vs 6.9% prior
  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.4% expected
  • Average hourly earnings +5.5% y/y vs +5.5% expected
  • Average weekly hours 34.6 vs 34.7 expected
  • Change in private payrolls +406K vs +385K expected
  • Change in manufacturing payrolls +55K vs +35K expected
  • Long-term unemployed at 1.5m vs 1.2m pre-pandemic)
  • The employment-population ratio 60.0% vs 61.2% before pandemic (prior 60.1%)
  • Full report
  • All eyes are on wages as the market grapples with how fast and far the Federal Reserve will tighten. The downtick on monthly average hourly earnings is an opportunity for a sign of relief and US 2-year yields fell to 2.71% from 2.74% on the headlines. That hasn't translated into meaningful movement in USD/JPY, at least not yet.

    • Assessing the report, the headlines are close to consensus but there's some weakening under the surface in both the unemployment rate and participation. Those are likely just quirks of the report and noise but it's worth watching closely in the months ahead for some softening (which should be expected anyway). The ADP report and both ISM employment components were weak for April as well.