Natural gas has been trying to get off the floor after flirting with a one-handle. Forecasts have been trending colder for March but it's too late to save the heating season.
It's looking to me like there's too much natural gas in North America and a mess in the pipeline system. In the second half of the decade, it could balance out with more LNG online but given how rapidly gas names upped production, I don't think we're going to be back above $5 sustainably for awhile.
At the end of the day, you have to remember that fracking is really natural gas technology and that the Permian basin is getting more gassy. If there's a shortage of gas, it's just a matter of putting online rigs; whereas with oil there are real supply limits along with brutal decline rates in shale.
