- Worst reading since 2011
- Prior was 67.2
- Current conditions 68.5 vs 73.0 expected (prior 72.0)
- Expectations 57.4 vs 64.1 prior
- 1-year inflation 5.0% vs 4.9% prior
- 5-10 year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% prior
I don't put much stock in this indicator at all. It's more of a Presidential approval indicator than an economic indicator but the speed of the drop in expectations is somewhat concerning.
The survey said "the recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade." They note that the entire decline was in households with incomes of 100K or more. That suggests the fall in the stock market had a large impact.
The 12-month inflation indicator ticked higher but I think the Fed will take some solace in long-term inflation expectations remaining stable.
