Equities are looking more subdued on the day and that seems to be weighing on commodity currencies, particularly the antipodeans. The kiwi couldn't even find much comfort from a more hawkish RBNZ with NZD/USD now down 0.8% to 0.6295 on the day.
Perhaps a plunge in commodity prices (iron ore being one of that) is also to blame but the negative risk sentiment on the day sure isn't helping. US futures are trading at the lows now, with S&P 500 futures down 31 points, or 0.7%, at the moment. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% and Dow futures down 0.6%, while European indices shrugged off the light gains earlier to keep lower.
For the S&P 500, the retreat in futures could be in part a technical play as the cash market reached a critical juncture in trading yesterday. Of note, we saw buyers run up to test the 200-day moving average (blue line):
I've mentioned since the start of the week that there was some scope for gains in equities up until the key resistance point and now here we are. The question now is, can buyers turn things around and pull towards a retest of the key level? Or will we see a rejection and the start of a renewed downtrend as recession worries start to dominate broader markets?
I reckon we might also have to take a cue from the bond market and so far, there isn't much firm direction just yet. So, let's see if the US retail sales data and FOMC meeting minutes later today could provide any catalysts for a more meaningful move. If not, this could be where the latest rebound in equities perhaps look to take a pause.